The Epidemiology of Knowledge and the Spread of Scientific Information

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چکیده

People commonly refer to “infectious” slogans, “catchy” phrases, or ideas that “spread like wildfire. ” These everyday expressions indicate a basic similarity between the dissemination of ideas and the transmission of disease—both are natural processes in which something is communicated, that is, transferred from one person to another. When a disease spreads quickly and infects many individuals it is cafled an epidemic. Ideas, too, can spread quickly and “infect” many people. I had the opportunity to explore the analogy between medical and “intellectual” epidemics in a lecture I gave last December at the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia. 1 I first heard about this analogy from my old friend Bill Goffman, even before he published the primordial paper in Nature, in 1964.2 In that paper, Goffman and Vaun Newill, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, pointed out that the dissemination of scientific ideas could usefully be described as a process similar to the transmission of disease. In fact, they suggested that existing mathematical models which describe epidemic processes could be valuable tools for information scientists as well as for medical researchers. Medical researchers use epidemic models both to describe the spread of a disease within a population and to predict when it is likely to reach a peak of infection, after which it presumably will decline. Goffman and Newill proposed that the same models could September 1,1980

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تاریخ انتشار 1980